Republicans Lose Ground in 14 Races Ahead of Midterms
Summary
A leading election forecaster, the University of Virginia's Crystal Ball, has moved 14 congressional races toward Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, signaling increased competition for Republicans. This shift reflects weak approval ratings for President Donald Trump and a national environment that currently favors Democrats.Key Facts
- Crystal Ball shifted 13 House races and 1 Senate race toward Democrats on July 30, 2024.
- The changes show growing difficulties for Republicans as President Trump's approval rating remains low.
- Democrats now have a slight edge in national House polling going into the midterm elections.
- The number of Tossup House seats increased from 15 to 20, making more districts highly competitive.
- Three previously Republican-leaning House districts are now Tossups: Pennsylvania's 8th, New York's 17th, and North Carolina's 11th Districts.
- Two Democratic districts shifted from Lean Republican to Tossup after redistricting in Florida's 14th and North Carolina's 1st Districts.
- Republican incumbents Max Miller (Ohio's 7th) and others face challenges including allegations and fundraising issues.
- Despite these changes, Crystal Ball says Republicans still have a possible path to keep control of the House.
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