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Can Progressive Jarrett Keohokalole Win Hawaii Primary? Final Polls

Can Progressive Jarrett Keohokalole Win Hawaii Primary? Final Polls

Summary

Hawaii’s Democratic primary for the 1st Congressional District is a close race between Representative Ed Case, a long-time incumbent, and state Senator Jarrett Keohokalole, who represents a younger, more progressive wing of the party. Polls show Case leading overall, but recent surveys indicate Keohokalole has gained ground, making the outcome uncertain.

Key Facts

  • The primary race is between Ed Case, age 73, and Jarrett Keohokalole, age 43.
  • Case is a moderate incumbent with nearly 20 years in Washington, while Keohokalole positions himself as a progressive seeking change.
  • Poll averages show Case leading with about 40% support versus 27% for Keohokalole, but some recent polls show Keohokalole ahead.
  • Case emphasizes his seniority and committee roles to bring federal resources to Hawaii.
  • Keohokalole wants stronger action on issues like healthcare and affordability and criticizes Case’s past votes supporting some Trump-backed election laws.
  • The district is safely Democratic; Case won reelection in 2024 with 72% of the vote, and Vice President Kamala Harris received 62% in the same area.
  • Both candidates have raised and spent similar amounts of campaign money, though Case has more cash left.
  • The race reflects a larger trend of progressive challengers trying to unseat veteran Democrats across the country.
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