Pollsters missed again in Wisconsin. Here's why.
Summary
Polls underestimated David Crowley’s support in the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor, where he narrowly defeated Francesca Hong. Rapid changes in the race, voters deciding late, and the challenges of open primaries led to polling errors.Key Facts
- Two polls showed Francesca Hong ahead by about 20 points shortly before the primary.
- David Crowley won the primary by about half a percentage point.
- Crowley’s support jumped quickly in the last days of the race, while Hong’s support stayed roughly the same.
- The race was chaotic, with candidates dropping out and Crowley briefly leaving then rejoining the contest.
- Hong faced criticism for a social media post about "cancel Thanksgiving" and did not run TV ads late in the campaign.
- Open primaries, where voters can choose either party's ballot regardless of registration, make polling turnout predictions difficult.
- Some Republicans may have voted in the Democratic primary to try to stop Hong.
- Polling reflects a moment in time and struggled to keep up with rapid shifts in voter preferences.
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