What Super El Niño Means for US Wildfires
Summary
A very strong El Niño is expected to develop in late 2026, which will change weather patterns across the U.S. This could lower wildfire risk in much of the southern and western U.S. but increase the risk in northern states and parts of Florida.Key Facts
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts over a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño in fall and winter 2026-27.
- There is a 69% chance this El Niño will be the strongest since records began in 1950.
- El Niño is a natural climate cycle that warms the tropical Pacific Ocean and affects weather worldwide.
- Typical El Niño winters bring more rain to the southern U.S. and warmer, drier conditions in the north.
- Increased rain in California, the Southwest, and southern Plains will likely reduce wildfires there by early October 2026.
- Northern states like Montana, the Dakotas, and the Northeast may see less rain and higher wildfire risk during fall 2026.
- Florida’s central and southern regions might also see a short-term increase in fire risk until mid-October.
- Changes in another climate pattern, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, could alter expected wet and dry areas in the western U.S.
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