Is Sudan’s battlefield shaping the terms of its next political phase?
Summary
Sudan’s military forces have made gains in the North Kordofan region, putting pressure on the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Defections from the RSF are increasing, and the army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, is starting a political dialogue while continuing military actions. These events suggest a possible shift in Sudan’s war and political situation.Key Facts
- Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) retook key areas in North Kordofan, including Bara, Jabra al-Sheikh, and Umm Sayala.
- The army gained control of the Exports Road, an important route linking Khartoum with western Sudan.
- Fighting continues across Kordofan, Darfur, and Blue Nile regions.
- Around 318 people from the RSF, including officers and commanders, defected to join the army recently.
- Defections are linked to battlefield pressure, internal RSF issues, and social or tribal influences.
- The RSF is under strain but has not collapsed.
- General al-Burhan announced a political dialogue process offering temporary immunity and legal protections for participants.
- The political dialogue is managed by an independent group and is separate from the state’s control.
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