German Far-Right AfD Chances of Winning Next State Elections
Summary
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party recently won 44 percent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt and looks likely to do well in upcoming state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. Polls and prediction markets show the AfD leading in these areas, but other major parties refuse to work with them to keep them from power.Key Facts
- The AfD received 44 percent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, much higher than the Christian Democratic Union’s (CDU) 17 percent.
- AfD is ahead in polls for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and has about an 80 percent chance of being the largest party there.
- Elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin are scheduled for September 20.
- The biggest party in German states usually forms the government, but most other parties refuse to partner with the AfD.
- The far-left BSW party, which got 5 percent in Saxony-Anhalt, may influence government formation there.
- In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, recent polls show AfD support around 30-35 percent, with SPD and CDU trailing.
- Prediction markets estimate about an 80 percent chance for the AfD to be the biggest party in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
- Other parties like SPD, CDU, The Left, Greens, and BSW are also competing but currently have lower support.
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