El Niño Update: New Forecast Shows When It Could Reach Peak Strength
Summary
El Niño, a climate pattern that affects weather worldwide, is expected to get stronger through the end of 2026. Federal forecasters say there is a more than 90% chance it will become a very strong event in fall and winter 2026-27, with a 75% chance of reaching its strongest level since records began in 1950.Key Facts
- El Niño is the warm phase of a natural Pacific climate cycle called ENSO, which impacts global weather.
- The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) updated its forecast saying El Niño will keep strengthening through 2026.
- There is over a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño event during fall and winter 2026-27.
- The CPC believes there is a 75% chance El Niño will reach historic strength between October and December 2026.
- Typical El Niño effects include wetter and stormier weather in the Southern U.S., especially California.
- California may see several strong storms called atmospheric rivers this winter, bringing heavy rain.
- The Colorado Basin, an area experiencing drought, may benefit if moisture spreads eastward.
- Previous CPC updates in August also indicated a high chance of a strong El Niño event.
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