El Niño likely to cause wetter and warmer-than-normal autumn
Summary
The UK is expected to have a wetter and warmer autumn due to a strong El Niño, a climate event where the tropical Pacific Ocean heats up. This weather pattern may increase the chances of storms and flooding but could also help end drought conditions in some areas.Key Facts
- El Niño is predicted to be the strongest in recorded history, peaking around November or December.
- The UK will likely see more wet and windy weather, especially from November onwards.
- Recent high sea temperatures near the UK will contribute to warmer autumn weather.
- Wetter weather may help drought-stricken areas recover but raises the risk of flooding.
- Autumn will probably be warmer than normal, continuing the pattern from a hot summer.
- The UK experienced a similar switch from heatwaves to storms and floods in 2025.
- Snowfall this autumn is unlikely, but El Niño can sometimes lead to colder, snowier winters later.
- Other weather factors may affect how cold the UK winter will be, making predictions uncertain.
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