James Talarico Polls Compared to Beto O'Rourke When He Almost Beat Ted Cruz
Summary
James Talarico, a Democrat, is polling better in his race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton than Beto O'Rourke did in 2018 against Senator Ted Cruz at a similar point. New polls show Talarico leading Paxton, making the Texas Senate race very competitive and possibly the first Democratic win in nearly 40 years.Key Facts
- A recent poll from SoCal Strategies shows Talarico with 50% support compared to Paxton’s 45%.
- In June, the same poll showed Paxton leading, so the race has shifted in Talarico’s favor.
- Talarico's support among Hispanic voters grew significantly, from 10 points behind Paxton to 38 points ahead.
- Among independent voters, Talarico increased his lead from 10 points to 45 points.
- About 12% of Republicans said they would vote for Talarico.
- Market prediction sites Polymarket and Kalshi now give Talarico about a 52-53% chance of winning, reversing earlier predictions favoring Paxton.
- In 2018, Beto O'Rourke was behind Senator Cruz by about 3 points at this stage but lost by only 2 points in the election.
- Senator Ted Cruz has acknowledged the race is close and warned Republicans to take the Texas Senate contest seriously.
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