Who Will Win the Midterms? Just Ask DAD
Summary
Recent polls show Democrats leading the race for Congress ahead of the midterm elections, while President Donald Trump faces lower approval ratings compared to previous election years. However, historical polling trends suggest that Democratic leads in summer polls often decrease by Election Day, a pattern called "DAD" or Democrats Always Disappoint.Key Facts
- Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by about 7 points in current polls.
- President Trump’s approval rating is lower now than it was at similar times before the 2018 and 2022 elections.
- The "DAD" trend means that Democratic polling advantages in summer often shrink by the actual election in November.
- Analysis of over 3,000 Senate polls from the last four cycles shows polls usually overestimate Democratic support by an average of 3.7 points.
- This polling error is largest in late July and August and becomes smaller by Election Day.
- The American Association for Public Opinion Research found that polls overstated Democratic margins by an average of 2.7 points in the last two weeks before the 2024 presidential primaries, similar to 2020 and 2016.
- Polling errors tend to be less in midterm elections compared to presidential years.
- Past polling mistakes show that relying solely on summer polls can mislead forecasts for actual election outcomes.
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