Texas Senate Race Shifts to 'Lean D' in Prediction Market Forecast
Summary
The Texas Senate race has become more competitive, with prediction markets and election forecasters now favoring Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton. This shift comes despite Texas traditionally favoring Republicans in Senate and presidential elections.Key Facts
- Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket give Talarico about a 59-60% chance of winning the Senate seat.
- Fox News and The Cook Political Report changed their ratings for the race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-Up."
- Nate Silver’s model now leans toward Talarico winning with roughly a 70% chance.
- Polls show Talarico leading Paxton by about 2.6 percentage points.
- Talarico would be the first Democrat to win a Texas Senate race since 1988 if he wins.
- Paxton has faced multiple legal and ethical controversies, including a 2023 impeachment and bribery allegations.
- Paxton has strong support from President Donald Trump, who endorsed him.
- The candidates have criticized each other publicly, including on social media, highlighting campaign tensions.
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