Could changing the pension triple lock pay for Burnham's big social care plan?
Summary
Prime Minister Andy Burnham plans to change the UK state pension “triple lock” system from 2030 to help pay for a new national social care service. The change would slow pension increases linked to wages, but experts say it may not save enough money soon enough to fully fund the care reforms by 2040.Key Facts
- The triple lock ensures the state pension rises each year by the highest of inflation, average wages, or 2.5%.
- Burnham proposes restarting the pension rise to only track inflation or 2.5% from 2030.
- This would remove the automatic yearly pension increase in line with average wages.
- The Institute for Fiscal Studies says this change would make pensions more predictable and sustainable.
- By 2026–27, the triple lock will increase pension costs by £16 billion per year compared to if it grew only with wages.
- The new system could reduce current spending by about £9 billion per year.
- The full savings may take more than a decade to appear, with significant savings expected only after 2034.
- Social care reforms could cost between £4 billion and over £7 billion per year depending on the plan.
- The government aims to save about £15 billion a year by the late 2030s from this pension change to support social care funding.
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