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Ethiopia back to civil war? Horn of Africa fears spillover effect of renewed fighting

Ethiopia back to civil war? Horn of Africa fears spillover effect of renewed fighting

Summary

Fighting has restarted in Ethiopia between the government and forces from the Tigray region. The conflict risks spreading to nearby countries, raising fears of a wider regional war in the Horn of Africa.

Key Facts

  • The Tigrayan forces launched a major attack against the Ethiopian federal government in late September 2026.
  • The 2022 peace agreement between the government and Tigray forces has broken down.
  • Neighboring Eritrea no longer supports Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
  • Ethiopia accuses Egypt and Sudan of helping the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) rebels.
  • Sudan itself is dealing with its own civil war, with accusations that Ethiopia supports the UAE-backed militias there.
  • The conflict endangers the security of the Red Sea area, including the important Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
  • Experts worry the civil war could cause instability across the Horn of Africa.
  • Regional alliances have changed significantly since the last peace deal.
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