Key Facts

• Prediction markets estimate Trump’s chance to win the 2026 Peace Prize is below 1%, while Carney's is about 1-2.6%.
• Trump previously promoted his peace efforts and lost the 2025 prize to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado.
• The White House criticized the Nobel Committee after Trump did not win in 2025.
• Trump’s 2024 actions, like a military operation in Venezuela and strikes on Iran, appear to have reduced his chances.
• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney took office in 2025 and has pushed back against Trump’s trade policies.
• Carney has worked to strengthen ties with Europe and called for collaborations among middle-power countries.
• The Nobel committee received 287 nominations for 2026, including 208 individuals and 79 organizations.
• Other top contenders include Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms and the nonprofit Save the Children.
• The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner will be announced on October 9.