Nate Silver’s Forecast Changes For Democrats—Seats Most Likely to Flip
Summary
A new forecast shows the Democratic Party has a higher chance of winning control of the U.S. Senate and House in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democrats are predicted to gain several Senate seats, especially in states like North Carolina, Texas, and Ohio, improving their chances compared to last month.Key Facts
- Democrats have a 73.9% chance to win the Senate, up from 50.6% last month.
- They have a 92.9% chance to win the House, up from 82.7%.
- The forecast predicts Democrats could pick up about five Senate seats.
- Key Republican seats likely to flip include North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Maine, and Alaska.
- In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper has a 95.3% chance of winning the open Senate seat.
- Texas Democrat James Talarico has a 74.3% chance to beat Republican Ken Paxton.
- In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown is favored over incumbent Republican Jon Husted.
- Polls show Democrats lead Republicans on healthcare, immigration, and cost of living issues.
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