‘A Ceuta-style surge is possible’: Border tensions on NATO’s eastern flank
Summary
Armed men from Belarus tried to bring migrants into Latvia and later damaged border equipment before returning to Belarus, according to Latvian officials. Belarus has used migration pressure to challenge NATO’s eastern borders, with Latvia facing increased border crossings and security challenges since mid-2023.Key Facts
- Masked, armed men escorted 20 undocumented migrants from Belarus toward Latvia on Monday.
- Latvian soldiers stopped the migrants, but later masked men entered Latvia to sabotage border surveillance.
- Belarus, allied with Russia, has used migration as a tactic to pressure NATO’s eastern border countries since 2021.
- Latvia’s border with Belarus is about 173 km (107 miles) long.
- Border violations near Latvia rose sharply in 2023, reaching 12,000 incidents by October.
- The situation is compared to a “Ceuta-style surge,” referring to a large migrant crossing from Morocco to Spain.
- Latvia may have difficulty handling a large migrant influx due to its small population (1.8 million) and limited resources.
- Belarus previously created systems to encourage migrants from Africa, Latin America, and Asia to enter the EU via Belarus.
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