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Donald Trump's Home State at Risk of Flipping as Florida Races Tighten

Donald Trump's Home State at Risk of Flipping as Florida Races Tighten

Summary

Florida, President Donald Trump’s home state, is showing a close race in this year’s governor election, with Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly tied in recent polls. The contest is tighter than expected in a state that has been solidly Republican for years, with both candidates gaining support from different voter groups.

Key Facts

  • Florida’s governor race polls show Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly tied at around 45% each.
  • Donalds previously led by a small margin, but Jolly is gaining among independent voters and younger people.
  • Jolly wins 62% of voters under 30, while Donalds leads heavily with voters 70 and older.
  • Hispanic voters in Florida lean toward Jolly in this race, despite voting Republican in the 2024 election.
  • Recent polls show some variation, but most still slightly favor Donalds or call the race leaning Republican.
  • Donalds has raised over $135 million, far more than Jolly, and has endorsements from President Trump and outgoing Governor Ron DeSantis.
  • Polls show mixed regional support: Jolly leads in Tampa, Orlando, and Miami; Donalds leads in West Palm Beach, Jacksonville, and Fort Myers.
  • Turnout of older voters, who prefer Donalds, could be a key factor in the election outcome.
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