The big unknown behind Democrats' polling leads
Summary
Polling shows Democrats leading Republicans ahead of the midterm elections, but pollsters warn there could be errors, especially in measuring support for President Trump and Republicans. Adjusting polls for underrepresented Republican voters is challenging, making predictions uncertain, though most experts still think Democrats have an advantage.Key Facts
- Polls show Democrats leading Republicans by about 8 points in the generic House ballot.
- Experts predict Democrats could gain enough seats to control the House and possibly the Senate.
- Polling support for President Trump has been hard to measure accurately in past elections.
- Fewer Republicans respond to telephone surveys, which can skew poll results.
- Pollsters try to fix this by giving more weight to Republican responses or using advanced statistical methods.
- These adjustments might cause errors if respondents differ from non-respondents in important ways.
- Predicting who will actually vote adds another layer of uncertainty to polling results.
- Despite concerns, most pollsters believe Democrats are likely to win on Election Day.
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