Australia has never driven migration into reverse by design. Would slamming the brakes on be calamitous?
Summary
Australia has never intentionally reduced its net overseas migration to below zero, meaning more people leaving than arriving, except during crises like wars or economic collapses. Some political leaders want to sharply cut migration to reduce housing costs, but experts warn this could harm the economy and government revenue.Key Facts
- Australia has only had negative net migration during major events like the world wars, the Great Depression, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
- No Australian government has purposely pushed permanent migration to zero before.
- One Nation leader Pauline Hanson plans to reverse migration for three years to lower housing prices and rents.
- One Nation claims cutting temporary migrants by 766,000 over three years could reduce rental inflation by 6.5%.
- Economists say such a large migration cut would reduce exports, especially from universities, and lower government revenue.
- Negative migration for several years could cause a prolonged economic downturn.
- The opposition Coalition party also wants to cut net migration to 100,000 annually, down from the current 225,000–300,000 target.
- Business groups warn that lower migration would hurt industries relying on temporary workers, like healthcare and agriculture.
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