James Talarico’s Chances in Texas Senate Race After Absence
Summary
James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for Texas Senate, has a strong chance of winning despite not campaigning in person for nine days because of the flu. Prediction markets and recent polls show Talarico leading over Republican Ken Paxton as the November 3 election approaches.Key Facts
- Prediction markets give Talarico about a 63-64% chance of winning, while Paxton has about 37%.
- Talarico stopped in-person campaigning from late September to early October due to illness.
- Republicans, including Paxton, criticized Talarico’s absence and shared "MISSING" posters of him.
- A recent Trafalgar poll showed Talarico ahead by over 3 points among likely voters.
- Other polls like Times/Siena University and YouGov also show Talarico leading by about 6 points.
- The Texas Senate race is closely watched nationally as Democrats try to win in a heavily Republican state.
- Prediction markets reflect traders’ expectations, not direct voter opinions, so odds may change for many reasons.
- Talarico returned to public view on October 9 at the Austin City Limits music festival.
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