Which war is having the biggest impact on diesel prices - Iran or Ukraine?
Summary
Global diesel prices have risen due to lower exports of diesel fuel caused by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. While both wars have reduced supply, data shows that the war involving the US and Iran in the Gulf region has caused a bigger drop in diesel exports than Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries.Key Facts
- President Donald Trump said Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries caused the diesel supply drop, but some blame the US-Iran war in the Gulf.
- Diesel prices in the US reached nearly $6.20 per gallon in October 2026, up from about $3.50 before the war with Iran.
- UK diesel prices also hit record highs, costing about 199 pence per liter.
- In 2025, global diesel exports were about 6.8 million barrels per day, but dropped to 5.8 million barrels per day by September 2026.
- Russia's diesel exports fell from 810,000 barrels per day in 2025 to 140,000 barrels per day in September 2026, mainly due to Ukraine's drone attacks.
- Gulf states' diesel exports fell sharply from 1.4 million barrels per day to 670,000 barrels per day because of disrupted shipping caused by the US-Iran conflict.
- The Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route, has been affected by Iranian attacks and a US blockade, reducing diesel shipments from the Gulf.
- Experts say the Iran conflict has caused a larger overall drop in global diesel exports than the Ukraine war.
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