When Will Mortgage Rates Drop? Top Housing Market Economist's Prediction
Summary
Mortgage rates in the United States are expected to stay around 7.5 percent for the near future, according to Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders. These higher rates are caused by ongoing economic uncertainties and global issues, making it harder for many people to afford home loans.Key Facts
- Mortgage rates rose sharply in 2026, from about 6.3 percent a year ago to 7.4 percent in October.
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit a low of 5.98 percent in late February 2026.
- Robert Dietz said the 7.5 percent mortgage rate could be the “new normal” until global and economic problems are resolved.
- High inflation and geopolitical problems, like the conflict involving Iran, are keeping rates elevated.
- Mortgage rates are influenced by long-term government bond yields, not just Federal Reserve decisions.
- Predictions that rates would drop soon have not come true, causing frustration among potential homebuyers.
- Other experts also expect mortgage rates to remain high or even increase before falling.
- Rising mortgage rates make buying a home more expensive even if prices do not go up.
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