Democratic enthusiasm in the 2026 primaries and what it could mean for midterms
Summary
Recent analysis shows that more Democrats voted in the 2026 primary elections compared to previous years, especially when compared to Republican voters. This higher Democratic turnout could affect the upcoming 2026 midterm elections and control of the U.S. Senate in key states.Key Facts
- Democrats showed greater voter turnout in 2026 primaries compared to Republicans, more than in recent midterm years.
- "Relative turnout" means the number of Democratic voters divided by Republican voters in a state's primary.
- In Wisconsin, Democratic primary turnout was 1.61 times that of Republicans in 2026, up from 0.72 in 2022.
- In Texas, Democratic turnout went from 0.55 to 1.07 times Republican turnout between 2022 and 2026, despite both parties having competitive primaries.
- Even in traditionally Republican states like Idaho, Democratic primary turnout increased, though it remained lower than Republican turnout.
- Key battleground Senate states with increased Democratic turnout include New Hampshire, North Carolina, Minnesota, and Iowa.
- Only three states—Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Oregon—saw a decrease in relative Democratic turnout from 2022 to 2026.
- Higher turnout in primaries can indicate stronger enthusiasm, which might influence results in the upcoming midterm elections.
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