Bad news for Trump ahead of the midterms: it’s still the economy, stupid
Summary
A recent poll shows many key Republican voters think the U.S. economy is getting worse as the 2024 midterm elections approach. This economic concern is growing despite some small official improvements and President Trump’s efforts to frame the economy positively.Key Facts
- In September 2024, 65% of Republicans believed the economy was worsening, which dropped to 33% after President Trump’s tariff policies began, but that trend has now reversed.
- Democrats’ view changed sharply in the opposite direction, with 73% seeing the economy as worse under President Trump, up from 28% previously.
- A new poll shows 38% of Republicans now believe the economy is declining, up from 29% a year ago.
- Rural Americans, a strong Republican base, feel the economy is worsening more than city residents (64% vs. 52%).
- Factors hurting rural voters include trade wars, higher fuel and fertilizer prices linked to President Trump’s policies, and restrictions on immigrant labor.
- Among white Americans, 61% now believe the economy is getting worse, up from 48% in September 2024.
- The belief that the economy is worsening among men rose from 46% to 52% over the same period.
- Political polarization has increased sharply, affecting how people see economic reality, with Republicans and Democrats having widely different views.
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