Nate Silver Forecast Shifts Towards Republicans After Fake Polls Removed
Summary
Nate Silver updated his midterm election forecast after removing fake polls from Wedgewood Polling, a group that admitted to fabricating most of its polls. This removal shifted the forecast slightly toward Republicans, especially in the Michigan Senate race.Key Facts
- Nate Silver removed fake polls from Wedgewood Polling that had been included in his election forecast.
- The fake polls generally showed about one point more support for Democrats than other polls.
- The biggest change after removal was in Michigan, where the Democratic candidate’s lead dropped from 3.6 points to 3 points.
- Some other races, like the Maine Senate race, also saw minor changes in polling numbers.
- The overall generic ballot numbers changed very little, with Democrats at about 51.5% and Republicans just under 42%.
- Wedgewood Polling had been banned from Silver’s polling aggregation after revealing their polls were mostly fake.
- Silver explained that Wedgewood was initially included because they answered questions about their methods and funding.
- Around 15 to 17 fake Wedgewood polls were removed from various poll aggregations.
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