UN says we're going to blow past 1.5º warming, offers a "now what?" answer
Summary
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has said the world will very likely pass the 1.5° Celsius global warming limit agreed in 2015 to avoid dangerous climate change. Since keeping warming below 1.5° is now seen as nearly unavoidable, UNEP is focusing on limiting how much and how long temperatures rise above this level by cutting emissions sharply and removing carbon dioxide from the air.Key Facts
- In 2015, nearly all countries agreed to try to keep global warming below 1.5° Celsius compared to pre-industrial times.
- The world is now very close to or has already exceeded this 1.5° warming limit, partly due to a strong El Niño weather event.
- UNEP says it is unavoidable that warming will pass 1.5°, but how long and how much warming continues depends on actions taken now.
- The United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement under the Trump administration, affecting global efforts to reduce emissions.
- Current policies are predicted to lead to about 2.8° Celsius warming by 2100, above targets from the Paris Agreement.
- Even with more ambitious goals, global warming could still reach around 2.1° Celsius by the end of the century.
- Global greenhouse gas emissions were mostly unchanged from 2024 to 2025, with fossil fuel emissions rising but balanced somewhat by better land management.
- Achieving climate goals will require both sharp cuts in emissions soon and removing large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
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