Brazil Election: Trump Ally Bolsonaro vs. Lula Final Polls and Odds
Summary
Brazilian voters are set to choose between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a presidential runoff. Final polls show a close race, while prediction markets give Bolsonaro a stronger chance of winning.Key Facts
- Flávio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump.
- Flávio Bolsonaro received 47.03 percent of valid votes in the October 4 first round, compared with Lula's 45.16 percent.
- Datafolha's Thursday poll showed the candidates tied at 50 percent of valid votes.
- Other final polls produced mixed results, with most showing the candidates close and within the polls' margins of error.
- The Rio Times' poll average put Bolsonaro at 50.9 percent and Lula at 49.1 percent.
- Polymarket gave Bolsonaro about a 78 percent chance of winning as of Saturday afternoon; Kalshi showed similar odds.
- No candidate who finished second in Brazil's first round has won a presidential runoff since the country returned to democracy in 1985.
- Turnout could affect the result; abstention was high in the first round, and Lula has sought to bring more voters to the polls.
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