Will Benjamin Netanyahu Win Israel Election? What Polls Show
Summary
Israelis vote on October 27 in an election that could determine whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can remain in power. Poll averages differ, but several show no bloc with the 61 seats needed to form a majority government, making coalition negotiations central to the outcome.Key Facts
- Israel’s Knesset has 120 seats, and a government needs support from at least 61 lawmakers to hold a majority.
- The election is Netanyahu’s first electoral test since the Hamas-led attacks of October 2023 and the conflicts that followed.
- An Israel.com average of nine polls put Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party at 22.1 seats and Likud at 20.6.
- The same average gave parties in the outgoing coalition a combined 50.2 seats, below the 61-seat majority threshold.
- A separate average by the State of Israel website projected 53 seats for the ruling coalition and two more than for the opposition bloc it measured.
- The final pre-election polls were published by Friday; Israeli law bars further polling before the Tuesday vote.
- Other contenders include former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, and Arab party blocs.
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