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James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton—What Texas Polls Show One Week Before Midterm

James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton—What Texas Polls Show One Week Before Midterm

Summary

Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are in a close race for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas one week before Election Day. Recent polls mostly show Talarico with a small lead, but the results fall within the polls’ margins of error.

Key Facts

  • Talarico is a Texas state representative, and Paxton is the state’s attorney general.
  • Five of six public polls released over the previous week showed Talarico ahead; Fox News found the candidates tied at 49 percent each.
  • The latest ActiVote survey showed Talarico leading 51 percent to 49 percent among 400 likely voters.
  • The Cook Political Report survey showed the largest reported lead: Talarico at 49 percent and Paxton at 44 percent.
  • Talarico led the RealClearPolitics polling average by 1.8 points, according to the article.
  • More than 4.5 million Texans had voted early by midday Monday; analysts expected total turnout to reach about 10 million, compared with 8.1 million in 2022.
  • No Democrat has won a Texas U.S. Senate race since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
  • Donald Trump planned rallies in Lubbock and Waco on Tuesday, his third visit to Texas that month.
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