Dementia cases in US projected to rise dramatically by 2050, study finds
Summary
A study projects that annual new dementia cases worldwide will rise from 11.4 million in 2023 to 24.7 million in 2050. In the United States, annual diagnoses are projected to grow from 514,000 in 2020 to 1 million by 2060, while shortages of care workers and geriatric doctors could make it harder to meet demand.Key Facts
- The global projection comes from a study published in JAMA Neurology.
- The U.S. projection comes from a separate JAMA study published in 2024.
- Longer life expectancy and population changes contribute to the projected increase in dementia cases.
- A 2024 report found that almost all surveyed nursing homes had difficulty recruiting staff, and about half had limited new admissions.
- Demand for nursing assistants and home health aides is projected to increase by 48% and 42%, respectively, from 2020 to 2035.
- The median wage for home health aides was $17 per hour in May 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- The number of U.S. geriatricians fell from 10,270 in 2000 to 7,413 in 2022.
- A 2025 KFF survey found that almost half of states reported offering incentives to recruit or retain Medicaid home care workers.
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