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5 Indicators James Talarico Has a Better Shot Than Beto O'Rourke in Texas

5 Indicators James Talarico Has a Better Shot Than Beto O'Rourke in Texas

Summary

The article says James Talarico appears more competitive in his Texas Senate race against Ken Paxton than Beto O’Rourke was against Ted Cruz in 2018. It points to recent polls and Paxton’s controversies, while noting that Paxton retains strong Republican support and backing from outside groups that have outspent Talarico’s allies.

Key Facts

  • O’Rourke lost to Cruz by 2.6 percentage points in 2018, after trailing in the final polls.
  • The article says RealClearPolitics’ final average had O’Rourke down 6.8 points, while its current average has Talarico up 1.5 points.
  • Several election forecasters describe the Talarico-Paxton race as a toss-up.
  • A Fox News poll conducted October 15–19 found both candidates at 49 percent among likely voters.
  • An Emerson College/Nexstar poll found Talarico ahead 48 percent to 46 percent; a University of Houston poll found him ahead by two points.
  • A Cook Political Report survey found Talarico ahead 49 percent to 44 percent.
  • Paxton’s history includes a 2015 felony securities fraud indictment, a 2024 pretrial diversion deal, and a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House; the state Senate acquitted him.
  • The article says outside groups supporting Paxton have spent more than twice as much as groups supporting Talarico, and a Fox poll found 90 percent of Republicans backed Paxton.
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