Analysts find looming launch crisis is "more severe" than anticipated
Summary
A Quilty Space report estimates that rocket supply outside China will fall about 150 launches short of demand through 2030. The shortage could be twice as large if U.S. military needs are included and SpaceX does not extend its Falcon rocket program; the report says the crunch may persist into the late 2030s.Key Facts
- Quilty Space estimates a shortfall of about 150 launches between now and 2030, compared with demand from satellite operators and civil space agencies.
- Including U.S. military demand could double the projected shortfall if SpaceX does not expand Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy service.
- The report expects the shortage to become most acute in 2028, then slowly ease.
- Factors include the loss of Russian rockets from Western markets, rising satellite demand, and delays to new rockets such as New Glenn, Vulcan, Neutron, Terran R, and Nova.
- Quilty Space says SpaceX has been winding down Falcon 9 commercial service and has not recently affirmed Starship as a commercial launcher.
- Starship could add substantial launch capacity, but its current narrow satellite dispenser may limit which customer spacecraft it can carry.
- Telesat CEO Dan Goldberg said the company may consider Starship if its next-generation satellites fit the vehicle’s dispenser.
- Quilty Space forecast eight New Glenn launches in 2028, 12 in 2029, and 16 in 2030.
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