Who Will Win the Midterms? What Polls Show 3 Days Out
Summary
Poll-based forecasts three days before the midterm elections favor Democrats to win the House, while the Senate race appears closer. The article says several Senate contests could decide control, and notes that forecasts vary because they use different assumptions about polls and uncertainty.Key Facts
- Silver Bulletin gave Democrats a 95.1 percent chance of winning the House and a 77.7 percent chance of controlling the Senate.
- Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats an 80 percent chance of winning the House and a 60 percent chance of controlling the Senate.
- VoteHub gave Democrats an 89 percent chance of controlling the House and a 63 percent chance of controlling the Senate.
- Silver Bulletin projected an average of 240 Democratic and 195 Republican House seats, and 53 Democratic and 47 Republican Senate seats.
- Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats for outright control because Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie for Republicans.
- The article reported that eight Senate races were within four points in at least one polling average it examined.
- In Alaska, a RealClearPolling average gave Democrat Mary Peltola a 1.2-point lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan; Decision Desk HQ rated the race a tossup.
- In Iowa, a RealClearPolling average gave Republican Ashley Hinson a 0.5-point lead over Democrat Josh Turek, while Decision Desk HQ gave Republicans a 53 percent chance of winning.
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