Homicides Are Down. Who Deserves Credit Is the Wrong Question | Opinion
Summary
A Council on Criminal Justice panel of about four dozen researchers assessed 48 possible explanations for the U.S. homicide decline from 2022 through 2026. The panel gave support to several approaches, including community violence intervention, focused deterrence and proactive policing, while finding little support for some explanations commonly cited in political debate.Key Facts
- The article says the U.S. homicide rate fell to its lowest level since 1900.
- Researchers from criminology, economics, public health and other fields reviewed evidence and anonymously rated 48 possible factors.
- Community violence intervention, which engages people at high risk of shootings, received broad support from the panel.
- Focused deterrence, which combines targeted law enforcement with offers of support and services, ranked among the leading explanations.
- Researchers also identified proactive policing, easing pandemic-era disruption, greater local government capacity and more concentrated public safety resources as possible contributors.
- The panel found almost no support for increased incarceration, pretrial detention, the immigration crackdown or National Guard deployments as drivers of the decline.
- Researchers were divided on federal gun policy: 43 percent saw at least a limited contribution, while 55 percent saw little or none.
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