America's changing power grid faces a powerful El Niño
Summary
A strong El Niño is expected to continue into spring 2027 and could shift U.S. electricity supply and demand this winter. More solar, wind and battery storage may help the grid manage changing conditions, but weather-related drops in solar or hydropower could increase reliance on other sources, including natural gas.Key Facts
- NOAA expects a very strong El Niño to continue into spring 2027.
- NOAA’s outlook favors wetter-than-normal conditions across California, the Southwest and much of the southern U.S. this winter.
- The outlook favors drier conditions in the northern Rockies and parts of the Great Lakes, and warmer conditions across much of the northern U.S.
- A study found that previous super El Niños were linked to nearly 5% lower potential solar output in parts of California over 12 months, and more than 10% lower output in northern California during winter.
- California now has more than 21 gigawatts of battery capacity, which can help manage fluctuations in electricity supply.
- The Columbia and Snake river basins supplied about 62% of Western U.S. hydropower generation from 2001 to 2020.
- A warmer winter in the northern U.S. could reduce heating demand, while cold outbreaks or major storms could still put pressure on the grid.
- A Pacific Northwest National Laboratory scientist expects natural gas to provide more backup if El Niño reduces hydropower and solar generation.
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