James Talarico's Chances of Beating Ken Paxton—What Final Texas Polls Show
Summary
Two final polls cited in the article show Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, by 5.9 points in an AtlasIntel survey and 7 points in a New York Times/Siena College survey. Other recent polls show a closer contest, and the article notes that polls do not determine the election result.Key Facts
- AtlasIntel surveyed 1,678 respondents from October 28 to November 1 and reported Talarico at 51.3 percent and Paxton at 45.4 percent.
- The AtlasIntel poll reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
- The New York Times/Siena College poll surveyed 5,708 likely voters in Texas from October 23 to November 1.
- The New York Times/Siena College poll reported Talarico at 50 percent and Paxton at 43 percent, with a margin of error of about plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
- Other cited polls ranged from a one-point Paxton lead in a Quantus Insights survey to a tie at 48 percent in a Trafalgar Group survey.
- Talarico is a Texas state representative and former public-school teacher; Paxton is Texas attorney general and won the Republican nomination by defeating Senator John Cornyn.
- The article says Republicans hold a 53–47 Senate majority, counting two independents who caucus with Democrats.
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