James Talarico Chances of Victory Hit Record High After Best Poll Yet
Summary
A New York Times/Siena College poll released November 1 found Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 43% among likely voters in the Texas Senate race. Prediction markets also favored Talarico, while Paxton campaigned on affordability and urged Republicans to vote ahead of Tuesday’s election.Key Facts
- The poll gave Talarico a seven-point lead among likely voters.
- The article described the result as Talarico’s strongest showing from a nationally recognized pollster in the contest.
- RealClearPolitics’ polling average from October 15 to November 1 showed Talarico ahead by 2.5 points, at 49% to Paxton’s 46.5%.
- Polymarket and Kalshi trading prices implied roughly a 74% to 76% chance of a Talarico victory; these are market estimates, not polling results.
- Kalshi’s margin forecast suggested Talarico could win by about 3.8 percentage points.
- At a Sunday rally in San Antonio, Paxton promoted his proposed Protecting the Texas Promise Plan and said the race would come down to the wire.
- Paxton urged Republicans to turn out to vote ahead of Tuesday’s election.
- The article said Paxton’s previously advertised Election Eve appearance at the Alamo was no longer listed.
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