2022 Senate Polls Offer Warning for Candidates Leading Toss-Ups
Summary
In 2022, Democrats won four U.S. Senate races rated as toss-ups even though Republicans led the final RealClearPolitics polling averages in each. Experts cautioned that close polls are uncertain snapshots, while noting that the pattern did not repeat across the board in 2024.Key Facts
- Cook Political Report rated the Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania Senate races as toss-ups in 2022.
- Republican Adam Laxalt led Catherine Cortez Masto by 3.4 points in Nevada’s final RealClearPolitics average, but Masto won by 0.9 points.
- In Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz led John Fetterman by 0.4 points in the final average; Fetterman won by nearly 5 points.
- Cook rated seven Senate races as toss-ups in 2026: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.
- RealClearPolitics averages cited in the article showed Democrat Mary Peltola ahead by 1.4 points in Alaska and Democrat James Talarico ahead by 2.5 points in Texas.
- Political scientist Joshua Dyck said close polls indicate a close race and fall within the margin of error; he described polls as snapshots, not votes.
- In 2024, the candidate leading the final RealClearPolitics average won three of the four Cook-rated toss-up Senate races cited: Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin; Pennsylvania was the exception.
- Cook’s review found that toss-up Senate races can break strongly toward one party: Democrats won eight of 10 such contests in 2012, and Republicans won eight of nine in 2014.
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