Charted: Why early midterm results can be misleading
Summary
Early election-night vote counts often look more Republican than the final results because fast-counting, Republican-leaning states report first. Control of Congress may remain unsettled for days, and early leads in individual states can change as more ballots are counted.Key Facts
- The House was not called until seven or eight days after Election Day in each of the past three elections.
- The Senate was settled on election night in 2018 and 2024, after four days in 2022, and after Georgia runoffs in January 2021.
- Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority.
- Since 2018, votes counted by 9 p.m. ET in national House and Senate races were 4 to 9 percentage points more Republican than the final results.
- At 9 p.m. on election night 2022, Florida made up 40% of all Senate votes counted nationwide.
- At 6 a.m. after Election Day, the national House count has still been 2 to 3 points more Republican than the final result, in part because some West Coast states take days to count.
- In 2024, Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno were tied with half of Ohio's votes counted; Moreno ultimately won by 4 points.
- Alaska accepts domestic ballots for up to 10 days after Election Day if they are postmarked on time, and its ranked-choice tally is scheduled for Nov. 18 if no candidate wins a majority of first choices.
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