Mary Peltola’s Chances of Beating Dan Sullivan—What Final Alaska Polls Show
Summary
Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 48% to 46% in a New York Times/Siena poll of Alaska likely voters conducted October 23–30, though the difference was within the poll’s margin of error. The article says Peltola’s lead has narrowed in recent polls amid controversy over a third-party candidate with a name similar to Sullivan’s.Key Facts
- The latest New York Times/Siena poll surveyed 610 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
- Six percent of respondents in the latest poll were undecided; less than 0.5% supported either of the two other candidates.
- An earlier New York Times/Siena poll, conducted September 24–October 1, showed Peltola ahead 50% to 43%.
- A Data for Progress poll conducted October 8–16 showed Peltola leading Sullivan 49% to 46% in the first round and 51% to 49% after the other candidates were eliminated.
- An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted October 9–10 showed Peltola leading Sullivan 48% to 43% in the first round and 50% to 48% in the second round.
- Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, in which lower-ranked candidates can be eliminated and their voters’ preferences reassigned.
- The article reports that a former Peltola staffer told The New York Times Democrats recruited Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. to draw votes from the incumbent Dan Sullivan.
- Republicans held 53 Senate seats to Democrats’ 47 at the time described in the article; Democrats needed to gain four seats for a majority.
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