David Jolly’s Chances Against Byron Donalds—What Final Florida Polls Show
Summary
Recent polls cited in the article showed Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly by 4 to 6 percentage points in Florida’s open gubernatorial race. Forecasts and prediction markets also favored Donalds, though the Cook Political Report had shifted the race rating from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”Key Facts
- An InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters, conducted October 28–29, found Donalds at 49 percent and Jolly at 45 percent; the margin of error was 2.83 percentage points.
- A New York Times/Siena University poll of 813 likely voters, conducted October 19–25, found Donalds at 48 percent and Jolly at 44 percent; the margin of error was 3.9 percentage points.
- An Echelon Insights poll of 515 likely voters, conducted October 16–23, found Donalds at 50 percent and Jolly at 44 percent; the margin of error was 5 percentage points.
- The Cook Political Report changed its rating of the race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” on October 1.
- Donald Trump endorsed Donalds and campaigned with him, according to the article.
- Donalds represents Florida’s 19th Congressional District. Jolly, a Democrat and former Republican, previously represented Florida’s 13th District in the U.S. House.
- The article reported that Kalshi gave Donalds a 63 percent chance of winning and Polymarket listed Donalds at 63 percent and Jolly at 39 percent.
- Florida polling places were scheduled to open at 7 a.m. local time and close at 7 p.m. on Tuesday.
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