Democrats' midterm gains could sideline Electoral College by 2028
Summary
Democrats’ state-level election gains could give five states the power to push the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact above the 270-electoral-vote threshold needed to take effect. The compact would direct participating states to award their electoral votes to the national popular-vote winner, but the new states must still approve it and legal challenges could follow.Key Facts
- The compact has been enacted by 18 states and Washington, D.C., representing 222 electoral votes.
- Democratic control of the governorship and both legislative chambers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada could raise the compact’s total to 283 electoral votes.
- The compact takes effect only when participating states collectively represent at least 270 electoral votes.
- Participating states would award their electoral votes to the national popular-vote winner once the threshold is reached.
- The Constitution gives state legislatures authority to determine how their states appoint presidential electors.
- The five states would still need to pass legislation joining the compact, and it is unclear whether they will prioritize it.
- The compact could face legal challenges, including disputes over whether it requires congressional approval.
- Michigan did not pass the compact during its previous period of Democratic control, and Nevada’s governor vetoed it in 2019.
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