Polls missed bigger on the midterms than in 2016
Summary
Initial analysis suggests polls captured the Democratic wave in the 2026 midterms but underestimated its size. Democrats are on track to win the national House popular vote by about 13 points, around four points above the final Silver Bulletin polling average.Key Facts
- The final Silver Bulletin polling average put Democrats ahead in the House popular vote by 8.9 points.
- The estimated polling error is similar to the 2020 miss that underestimated Republicans and larger than average partisan errors in 2016 and 2024; comparisons with presidential election years are imperfect.
- Pollsters had spent three presidential elections underestimating Donald Trump's support and tried to account for Republican voters who might be missed by surveys.
- Nearly 70% of national polls used weighting based on party affiliation or past voting in 2024, according to a Pew analysis.
- A Washington Post analysis warned that lower turnout among Trump voters could make polls based on the 2024 electorate underestimate Democrats.
- AtlasIntel ranked first in its analysis of final national House polls by accuracy of the popular-vote margin.
- AtlasIntel's final poll showed a 14.1-point Democratic lead, 0.3 points from its projected final margin of 13.8 points.
- Tufts University, New York Times/Siena, Change Research and RMG Research followed AtlasIntel in the ranking.
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