Biggest Polling Misses of the 2026 Midterm Elections
Summary
Newsweek compared RealClearPolling’s final averages with Associated Press results available at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday and found that polls underestimated Democratic support in several major 2026 races. The largest cited errors were in Texas, where James Talarico won the Senate race by more than his polling lead suggested, and the Texas governor’s race, where Gina Hinojosa defeated Greg Abbott despite trailing in the average.Key Facts
- RealClearPolling’s final average showed Republican Ken Paxton ahead of Democrat James Talarico by 2.6 points in the Texas Senate race; the AP result cited in the article put Talarico ahead by 12.1 points.
- The Texas Senate result produced a 9.5-point difference between the polling margin and the result, the largest overall miss in the article’s analysis.
- The final average showed Greg Abbott ahead of Gina Hinojosa by 2.3 points in the Texas governor’s race; the AP result put Hinojosa ahead by 7.1 points.
- The Texas governor’s race had the largest wrong-leader error in the analysis, at 9.4 points.
- In South Carolina’s Senate race, the final average favored Republican Darline Graham Nordone by 2.6 points, while the AP result put Democrat Annie Andrews ahead by 4.4 points.
- Georgia’s Senate polls correctly favored Democrat Jon Ossoff but understated his winning margin; the supplied article text gives no figures for that race.
- The article said the comparisons were preliminary because final ballots were still being counted in several states.
- The article reported that Democrats had secured at least 54 Senate seats, with Alaska and Mississippi unresolved, and had taken control of the House.
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