Polling experts hail ‘great night’ after correctly calling most key US midterm election races
Summary
Polling experts said pre-election surveys generally captured the direction of the midterm results, in which Democrats won both chambers of Congress. Some surveys underestimated Democratic support, reversing a recent pattern in which polls often underestimated Republicans, particularly in elections featuring Donald Trump.Key Facts
- Rutgers polling director Ashley Koning said credible polls correctly predicted the direction of every race that had been called at the time of her comments.
- The final New York Times/Siena poll showed Democrats leading in Senate races in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas; Democrats won those seats.
- Experts said polls varied in how accurately they predicted the size of individual victories.
- Researchers identified predicting who would turn out to vote as a major challenge, especially in midterm elections, which typically have lower turnout than presidential elections.
- Pew Research Center reported that survey response rates fell from 36% in 1997 to the low single digits in recent years.
- Polling expert Christine Matthews said surveys captured shifts toward Democrats among some Hispanic and younger voters who had supported Trump in 2024.
- University of North Florida researcher Sean Freeder said polls may have underestimated Democratic support rather than Republican support for the first time in more than a decade.
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