Could the earliest weakening of the polar vortex on record bring UK snow?
Summary
The polar vortex over the Arctic has weakened unusually early in November and may reverse direction, which could mark the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming event in modern observations. Such events can increase the chance of colder, drier weather and snow in parts of the UK, but forecasters say this early disruption makes its effects difficult to predict.Key Facts
- The polar vortex is a band of strong winds in the stratosphere that helps keep Arctic air near the North Pole.
- The vortex has weakened, stretched and briefly split into two circulations in recent days.
- Forecasts show the winds could reverse by mid-November, creating a major sudden stratospheric warming event.
- The Met Office’s Jeff Knight said the event would appear to be the earliest in about 75 years of observations.
- The previous earliest major events cited in the article occurred on 28 November in 1969 and 2025.
- A disrupted vortex can affect the jet stream and raise the chance of colder weather and snow, especially in eastern UK.
- Experts say any connection between the current El Niño and the unusually early disruption is unclear.
- Long-range Met Office forecasts point to a stormy start to winter and a colder spell toward its end, but the early vortex event adds uncertainty.
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