US Territories Could Lose Up to 61% of Population by 2100
Summary
U.S. Census Bureau projections show population declines by 2100 in four U.S. island territories, with American Samoa facing the largest drop: 61% from its 2026 population. The projections reflect falling birth rates and continued migration to the mainland; the article says these declines could shrink workforces, reduce tax revenue and strain health care systems.Key Facts
- American Samoa’s population is projected to fall 61% by 2100 compared with 2026.
- The Census Bureau projects declines of 41% in the U.S. Virgin Islands, 38% in Guam and 17% in the Northern Mariana Islands.
- The article identifies falling fertility and out-migration as the main drivers of the projected declines.
- The U.S. total fertility rate is projected to be 1.62 children per woman in 2026, below the approximate replacement level of 2.1.
- In 2026, net migration rates ranged from -4.8 per 1,000 people in Guam to -25.1 in American Samoa.
- Residents leaving the territories are expected to decrease in number and reach zero by 2100, according to the projections described in the article.
- The article says population loss could reduce workforces and tax revenue and put pressure on health care systems.
- A Government Accountability Office report cited in the article said a shrinking workforce has weakened the Northern Mariana Islands’ economic standing.
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