Fossil fuel emissions set to fall for first time since Covid, research shows
Summary
Global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions are projected to fall 0.4 percent in 2026, the first annual decline since the Covid pandemic, according to the Global Carbon Budget report. Researchers attributed the forecast decline to renewable energy growth and lower oil use following the Iran-related oil price shock, but warned emissions could rebound when oil tensions ease.Key Facts
- Fossil fuel emissions rose by an average of 0.9 percent a year over the past decade and reached a record high in 2025.
- The report projects 2026 emissions from oil will fall 1.9 percent and emissions from gas will fall 0.3 percent, while coal emissions will rise 0.6 percent.
- Fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions are forecast to total 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026.
- Including emissions from land-use change, total carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise to 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, from 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025.
- Researchers said solar and wind power and electric vehicles meet two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand.
- Land-use emissions are projected to rise partly because of peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia amid drier conditions linked to a strong El Niño.
- The report estimates the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C at 150 billion tonnes, which would be used up in less than four years at current emissions levels.
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