How Polls, Forecasts Got Mississippi Senate Race So Wrong
Also reported by BBC US, PBS NewsHour, France24, CBS News, ABC News, The Hill, BBC World, Guardian US, Guardian World, Axios, Al Jazeera
Summary
Democrat Scott Colom defeated Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi’s U.S. Senate race by 4,669 votes, winning 49.2% to 48.7%. Public polling and political ratings had generally favored Hyde-Smith, and Colom said those assessments made it harder for his campaign to raise money.Key Facts
- Colom led Hyde-Smith by 4,669 votes out of 962,237 counted when the race was called.
- Colom received 49.2% of the vote, while Hyde-Smith received 48.7%.
- The final legitimate public poll showed Hyde-Smith ahead by 3 points, within the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error.
- Cook Political Report rated the race Likely Republican and did not move it into a more competitive category.
- A Data for Progress survey conducted in August showed Hyde-Smith leading Colom 44% to 38%, with 7% for independent Ty Pinkins and 11% undecided.
- In that August survey, 50% viewed Hyde-Smith unfavorably, while 57% said they had not heard enough about Colom to assess him.
- Colom said Solid Republican ratings made fundraising harder for his campaign.
- A political science professor said that a polling lead within the margin of error should be treated as a statistical dead heat.
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