Key Facts

• El Niño is a climate pattern linked to warmer-than-usual waters in the Pacific Ocean that can affect temperatures and rainfall worldwide.
• The Climate Prediction Center forecast a greater than 79 percent chance of a strong-to-very-strong El Niño through January–March 2027.
• The Climate Prediction Center put the chance of an event exceeding previous El Niños dating back to 1950 at about 60 percent for the October–December and November–January periods.
• The agency said Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeded 4.0°C and extended farther west across the eastern equatorial Pacific than in its previous update.
• NOAA’s winter outlook favors warmer-than-average temperatures in northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the East, and Alaska.
• NOAA’s outlook favors wetter-than-average conditions along the southern tier of the United States and the East Coast.
• The outlook favors drier-than-usual conditions in Hawaii, most of Alaska, the northern Mountain West, and parts of the Great Lakes region.
• A very strong El Niño can shift the jet stream south and east, increasing the odds of stormier weather across the South, according to NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.